On the morning of his conference speech, a Com Res poll for the Independent made tough reading for Ed Miliband. Only one in five people think he has what it takes to be Prime Minister. Worse, almost 60% of Labour supporters couldn’t see their man in Number 10.

The performance he gave has been widely praised. He spoke off the cuff, made some jokes and commanded his audience. But does he look any closer to Downing Street?

Successful opposition leaders – Blair and Cameron, for example – have taken a three-stage route to government. First, define yourself. Second, redefine your party. Third, define your programme.

The steps need to happen in the right order and at the right pace. Try and redefine your party before they know you and they’ll shoot you down. Define your manifesto programme too early and the best bits will be stolen while the rest is taken apart.

As long as he’s following the tried-and-tested, triple-jump strategy, Miliband pitched his speech about right.

First and foremost this was about Miliband the man. He played on his comprehensive education. He talked about his family. And he placed himself in the Labour tradition of Atlee’s post-war government with his promise to rebuild Britain. After a widely criticised conference speech last year he came across as a real person with values that Labour voters can understand.

He showed signs that he may be willing to redefine his party in the future, when he attacked the policies of the previous Labour government on the banks and immigration. But he largely played to the crowd with his support for the NHS and attacks on irresponsible capitalism.

And while he was quiet on specific policy proposals, those he did put forward seemed well calibrated. In a speech that was aggressive towards business, he pleased the CBI and others with his comments on vocational education to improve skills. His proposal to abolish quarterly reporting attracted little comment. But it’s a clever way to signal the long-term nature of the capitalism he seeks to encourage, while pleasing listed companies that could do without the hassle.

But, he will only look back on this speech from Downing Street if the conferences of 2013 and 2014 are used respectively to redefine his party and set out his programme. Today’s performance will shore up Labour supporters – but he’ll need to deliver on stages two and three before the wider electorate will take him seriously.