“Deeper in the midterm mire.” That was the headline. And it wasn’t an entirely negative one, given that it gently implied that the government might recover.

The midterm blues are ingrained in politicians’ collective psyche as concrete fact. Away from the forced choice of a general election, the theory runs, voters are quick to register their dismay with the government by pledging its support for the opposition. They soon swingback at election time. That, anyway, is the theory. I remember that midterm mire headline: it was on a revision handout during my A-levels. That was 1994. John Major’s government never emerged from the morass.

Fast-forward 18 years, and the fear of some Conservative supporters is that the government – like that of Major – has gone beyond what can be realistically ascribed to the midterm blues. True, Labour has its problems. Its leader’s personal ratings are still in the doldrums. Last week, in Bradford West, it contrived to lose a safe northern seat to a man who is best known for donning a pink leotard and impersonating a cat. Yet last week’s by-election embarrassment for Labour was, probably, a bizarre one-off in an unusual constituency with an almost unique set of circumstances. It is hard to see any Marxist cat-impressionists scooping seats nationwide at a general election.

So the anti-Cameron voices continue. “Out of touch,” say some. “Too elitist,” chime voices from others. “Too liberal,” warn those on the social right, angered about their leader’s proposals for gay marriage.

I don’t think any of these are the key reason the government is suffering. While it is unhelpful in a recession for politicians to be tagged as an elitist, the barb at the government is blunted somewhat by the fact that many of Labour’s frontbench are also wealthy; privately educated; and/or the intellectual elite of Oxbridge.

The too liberal gibe simply echoes those whose solution to the Conservatives’ devastating election defeats born of Tony Blair’s capture of the political centre-ground was to urge the Tories further to the right.

And the Coalition may be out of touch with the common man, but which politicians aren’t? A life spent voting on amendments at 9pm in the panelled halls of SW1 has that consequence.

No, the chief problem the government has is the very recent allegation of incompetence. The Coalition was once seems as tough but smooth. Not any more. The bungled presentation of the Budget, the fiasco over Cornish pasties, and the ill-thought advice for people to stockpile petrol in jerry cans lost the government its managerial sheen and pushed it towards being an object of ridicule. The trouble with starring in episodes of farce is that – like the manager who makes a few monumental mistakes and then is under the eagle eye of his superiors – the bumbling image is hard to shake off. The press are hunting for the next gaffe.

It is possible that a reshuffle in the summer may refresh the government. It certainly needs to do something. Like the Major government, the Coalition is being told – even by its own supporters – that it doesn’t know what it’s doing. And, as Major also found, that’s the kind of midterm mud that can stick.