Swivelgate: how green shoots hope was quashed by grassroots wrath

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Wednesday, 22 May 2013

David Cameron’s latest rift with his party activists has denied him credit for progress on the economy and a compassionate outcome for the vote on same-sex marriage

Portcullis with Jon Bennett

Amid the pomp and ceremony of the Queen’s Speech, TV cameras caught a glimpse of Ed Miliband and David Cameron sharing a joke in the corridors of Westminster. The mood was convivial, and people who don’t recognise one or other of the party leaders could be forgiven for thinking they were in the same party. The reality is, they probably do have more in common than they share with many of their respective party activists.

It takes a particular sort of masochist to traipse the streets in all weathers, turn up to drafty ward meetings in church halls and hand out balloons in shopping centres. I speak from experience. Most of these people, of all political persuasions, are committed to a particular vision of a better society. They’re trying to do their bit. But it’s a minority calling and the people who answer it aren’t always what you’d call typical. That’s what makes them interesting.

To get their ideas adopted by the wider population – who feel they have better things to do than push recycling through letterboxes of a weekend – they choose figureheads to stand for election. Grudgingly, they accept that activists with the biggest beards, most frightening piercings and widest union jack ties are not those who will appeal to the mainstream voter.

And there the compromise begins. Memberships provide candidates with a mandate. But to get elected, the candidates have to balance the desires of their membership, whose votes should be in the bag, with those of the wider electorate, whose votes are up for grabs. The result is a scrap for the centre ground and disgruntled activists feel betrayed. Swivelgate adds insult to injury. Activists expect to be let down and they don’t mind being vilified on the doorstep, but they don’t expect the same from their own party leadership.

The throwaway remark that was or wasn’t made by a senior Conservative, and the way in which the party reacted, has crowded out good news on the economy and stopped David Cameron taking any credit for same-sex marriage. It was Labour who got that vote through, managing to look principled while correctly calculating this would do greatest damage to the Conservatives. No “Compassionate Conservativism” points scored here. While the party stays in turmoil there is little to tempt David Cameron out of coalition to go it alone – something that Labour should fear, since a recovering economy could be associated with a casting off of Lib Dem shackles.

The fact is, while the polls are rarely to be trusted on the matter, a majority of people in the country at large support gay marriage. A majority of Conservative activists do not. David Cameron is not out of touch with public opinion – he understands it perfectly well, and he understands the opinion of his activists. He simply recognises that the population at large matters more. The Conservative activists are like shareholders persuading Henry Ford into the horse and cart business. But without them, Cameron hasn’t the staff to sell any cars.