Apparently it was the Lib Dem annual conference this week. It hardly set the world on fire as a piece of political theatre, despite a statesmanlike closing address by Nick Clegg. As a consequence, it won’t have engaged many outside the party and Westminster in his narrative of achievements in three years of government.

There’s been some light posturing. Vince Cable thinks the Tories are ugly, and their policies aren’t up to much either. By contrast, Nick Clegg says the Coalition will go all the way. In which case they should probably get a room. But the nation has hardly been captivated.

This general lack of interest in proceedings at Glasgow belies the fact that the Lib Dems could hold the balance of power in 2015 – even if they lose seats and their share of the vote declines. A hung Parliament is still favoured over an overall majority in the betting markets (13/10 with Bet 365). The geographic spread of the UKIP vote means that party is more likely to lose the Conservatives seats than it is to win seats of its own, which leaves Nick Clegg the default option for the Deputy Prime Minister’s chair. Comfy.

Within his party, Clegg faces accusations of failure on several fronts: the U-turn on tuition fees, a disastrous alternative-vote referendum and the failure to secure reform in the House of Lords. But his wider message to the country is one of a mitigating influence that has softened the blow of Tory cuts and protected the vulnerable in society. The free school meals announcement fits neatly with this narrative and, if people will listen, it’s an easy sell on the doorstep.

The rewards of power also give the Lib Dems something far stronger that formed a keystone of Nick Clegg’s address. “Stable, successful coalition … something once seen as impossible, accepted as the norm.”

Historically, Lib Dem support has run completely out of sync with the electoral cycle. Mid-term, voters are more inclined to express a preference for the party. But as an election approaches, Labour and the Tories put the squeeze on soft support by branding a vote for the Lib Dems as wasted (“They’ll never get in”, etc). But the party no longer has to campaign on the dodgy basis that it can form a majority government. People now have a better grasp of the coalition concept, and they can understand that the smallest party in such an arrangement is imbued with power beyond the weight of its votes and seats.

If the electorate gives Clegg the benefit of the doubt, any recovery in the polls over the next 18 months will most likely transfer to results at the ballot box. Meanwhile, his party will lose that part of its support that wanted to register a protest. The realities of power soon chase them away – but they were never going to win the party any real influence anyway. For people whose votes are more than just protests, though, the Lib Dems can become a more viable prospect.

Perhaps we should all pay a little more attention?