On Sunday morning, Ed Miliband kicked off the Labour conference by telling Andrew Marr how unlikely it was that he could have been part of Damian McBride’s macho gang of toughs. But by the time he gave his keynote speech yesterday, he seemed to have done a complete U-turn, pulling on the knuckledusters for a couple of big fights.
Most obvious was the call for David Cameron to “bring it on” if he wanted to turn the election into a test of character. This is the standard stuff of political knockabout. Indeed, it would be surprising if the opposition Leader did not ask the PM to step outside in one way or another. Much more interesting is the fact that Miliband has squared up to the big bruisers of the energy industry by pledging to freeze gas and electricity prices until 2017. It’s going to be a tough scrap and Miliband has every chance of getting a bloody nose. However, picking this particular fight may just have been a masterstroke of tactical and strategic guile.
By addressing an issue as easily understood and universally felt as energy bills, Miliband has given tangible definition to the abstract notions he has spent much of his leadership talking about. The populist promise to reduce household bills makes it very clear just what is meant by a “one nation” approach to helping the “squeezed middle” tackle the “cost-of-living crisis”. Labour activists will be grateful for this easy doorstep sell.
However, within minutes of Miliband leaving the stage, several voices where already casting doubt on the long term value of such a pledge. Notably, energy industry commentators immediately leapt in with dire warnings of blackouts, reductions in infrastructure investment and short-term price rises. In doing so they could be handing Miliband the strategic advantage he craves.
Thus far, Miliband’s credentials for taking on powerful vested interests have rested on the stance he took against the Murdoch press empire in the wake of the News of the World hacking revelations. But the fact of the matter is that issues around media ownership excite denizens of the Westminster village much more than they do the men and women on the Clapham omnibus. People may tut in disapproval when they hear about the worst excesses of journalist sharp practice, but they don’t necessarily feel like they are the ones being victimised. This is not the case with big energy suppliers, whose misdemeanours (witness this recent Which? report about the sector’s bewildering array of standing charges) hit home every time a new bill lands on the doormat. By poking big energy in the eye, Miliband’s Labour can align itself with the public against a common enemy.
But significant as Miliband’s energy pledge is, he still has a long way to go in sealing the deal with the electorate. It’s relatively easy to make populist policy promises and pick fights with powerful interest groups. It’s much harder to follow through on those promises and withstand the onslaught that will be unleashed by those on the other end of the challenge. As every fight fan knows, trash-talking contenders have a habit of ending up flat on their back in the opening round. Miliband’s speech has given Labour a populist policy for addressing everyday concerns, and a widely despised enemy to square up to. To win the title in 2015, Miliband has to convince people that he has the punching power to go the distance.